Introduction
In Japan’s Wagyu industry, something unusual is happening.
Calf prices continue to rise, even though carcass prices remain flat or have weakened.
This gap is placing unprecedented pressure on Wagyu farmers — a reality that most overseas people never hear about.
Calf prices are hitting historic highs
The number of Wagyu calves has been declining for years.
Ageing farmers, rising costs, and ongoing farm closures have made supply tighter than ever.
As a result:
- Many auctions now see average prices in the $4,150USD–$4,480USD range per calf
- Farmers compete aggressively to secure limited calves
- Some calves trade at levels that were unthinkable just a few years ago
For many producers, buying calves has become the biggest financial risk in their entire business.
Meanwhile, carcass prices are flat or weakening
Despite soaring calf prices, carcass prices have not followed.
Why?
- Restaurant consumption has not fully recovered
- Export markets are growing slowly
- Demand for highly marbled beef is no longer automatic
- Red-meat-leaning trends are stronger than before
Even A5 and A4 carcasses do not always achieve the premiums they once commanded.
Profitability is being squeezed
Farmers now face a harsh equation:
Buying calves at record-high prices → Selling finished cattle at stagnant prices
On top of that:
- Feed remains expensive
- Electricity and labor costs continue to rise
- Monthly cash flow pressure is intense
- Yet, skipping an auction means leaving barns empty — which is often an even bigger financial risk
This is the most challenging environment many Wagyu producers have ever experienced.
What this means for the future of Wagyu (for overseas buyers)
This structural imbalance will shape Wagyu supply for years:
- Total supply will not increase
- A3–A4 grades may play a larger role in exports
- Brand-to-brand quality differences will become more visible
- Cost per head will remain high
- Prices will continue to be volatile
For overseas buyers, understanding these dynamics is essential to sourcing sustainably from Japan.
Final thoughts
Wagyu is not expensive because of marketing.
It is expensive because of the difficulty and risk involved in raising cattle under these conditions.
As farmers continue to operate under pressure, their dedication is what keeps the Wagyu tradition alive — and it deserves to be understood beyond the price tag.
